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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Prime Minister on Reform, Ethnic Conflict in Yugoslavia
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Foreign Broadcast Information Service, May 24, 1991
Yugoslavia: Federal Prime Minister on Reform, Ethnic Conflict
</hdr>
<body>
<p>[Interview with SFRY Prime Minister Ante Markovic by Alain
Debove; place and date not given. Paris LE MONDE in French 23
May 91 p 2]
</p>
<p> [Text] [Debove] Yugoslavia's present crisis does not seem to
surprise you.
</p>
<p> [Markovic] When I took office two years ago, when I launched
social reforms and spoke of the need to change the whole
system, I expected it to take a period of five years. At that
time, I was already saying that the path we were taking would
be very difficult and that it would cost us all blood, sweat,
and tears to make this transition from one system to another.
At that time I told the legislature that at a given point in the
process, all the forces--conservative, retrograde, dogmatic,
separatist, and hegemonist--would, through political and
social tensions, unite against the economic reform program,
against the architects of those reforms, to try and halt them
and oust them.
</p>
<p> I predicted all that, and we have now reached a critical
point in the reforms. This is no surprise, the question was when
it would happen. The government is therefore striving to
implement the program that would enable the system to function
and our action to be continued. The adoption of this program and
the revival of the reforms is the answer to your question.
</p>
<p> [Debove] Has this reform program not been relegated to
second place by the political unrest and the interethnic
conflicts--notably between Serbs and Croatians?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] That is true, and it is politics that has halted
the economic reforms. But the reforms are not just to do with
the economy. They are concerned with the organization of the
state and of society in general. The economic reforms have
unfortunately revealed real underdevelopment in our country.
The political reforms have highlighted a lack of democratic
sense and experience. Current relations among the different
nationalities are like a bottle whose cork has popped: old
thinking is reappearing--emotions, irrational feelings, ethnic
problems, religion, and so forth. The economic disparities are
huge and the social tensions that are beginning to emerge must
not be underestimated.
</p>
<p> The Federal Government is fighting for reforms, for the
democratization of society, and thus for a Yugoslavia without
borders. But there are republics that, pushed by nationalism,
are fighting for borders inside the country. The first idea
must prevail. If I did not believe that, I would doubt progress.
</p>
<p> [Debove] You said: We are at a critical point in the reform.
But is the situation as critical as that?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] Yes, it is critical and many factors bear witness
to that. The economic situation is difficult and this halt in
the implementation of reforms over the past seven months is
bound to have harmful effects. The delays in economic change,
especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, are causing
social tensions and unemployment.
</p>
<p> Opposing the constitutional amendments is an attempt to
maintain a complex conservative Constitution. This produces
insecurity for the citizen, for the nationalities, for the
peoples, and for the republics--a general insecurity, a lack
of confidence and tolerance. To overcome the situation, the
reforms must be relaunched and the government is working in
that direction.
</p>
<p> In several spheres, our program has produced excellent
results. At first, we had two possible courses--drawing up a
substantial, gradual program, or destroying a system and
building another on the ruins. I hope that the citizens of our
country will not forget what this program brought them. That is
why we believe that we have chances of succeeding, with the
citizens' support, and by resuming the path of reform.
</p>
<p> [Debove] You are talking of the support of citizens but not
of the support of the republics....
</p>
<p> [Markovic] Precisely, with the citizens' support, I must
say, however, that we are also supported by several republics.
</p>
<p> [Debove] Two camps are facing each other--the advocates of
a strong and centralized federation (Serbia and Montenegro) and
the advocates of a flexible confederation of sovereign states
(Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, and Bosnia-Hercegovina). What is
your position? Are there other solutions?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] As far as the Federal Government is concerned, we
are constantly trying to find a solution that is not
definitive. A solution that is neither federal nor confederal.
Above all, we are trying to define a new and minimal basis for
relations between the republics, in the framework of a pluralist
and democratic regime and within a common state.
</p>
<p> The conflict between federation and confederation is
irrational, as are many other things in our country. I do not
think it will last long because economic and social problems
will not permit it. All the republics absolutely must seek a
rapid solution. None of them will be able to achieve the
transition to a market economy alone. It is a question of cost:
Will the transition all together be more costly or less costly
than transition on an individual basis? Some republics may think
that the cost will be less if they go it alone, outside
Yugoslavia. But if you take account of the time needed--first
to go on quarrelling, then to separate, then to settle our
relations with the other republics and foreign countries, to
define the internal borders--then the price is much higher!
The price will be higher for each of us.
</p>
<p> [Debove] After the nonelection of Croatian Stipe Mesic
(because of Serbia's veto) as head of state, the collegial
presidency is paralyzed. Are some republics not trying to
destabilize the presidency, the legislature, and the Federal
Government?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] Yes, of course. Instability suits some political
forces that are boosting their power by manufacturing enemies.
Peace would not suit them. Having said that, the collegial
presidency is experiencing a crisis, the other bodies are
functioning--the legislature and the government that is
entirely homogeneous. We are implementing the decision made
recently by the presidency and legislature to find peaceful and
democratic solutions to the recent conflicts between Serbs and
Croatians in Croatia and in Kosovo. It is not true that
everything has stopped, although we have not overcome the
crisis.
</p>
<p> Of course, the government is answerable to the legislature,
but the presidency has its say if the deputies do not reach a
consensus on the bill. It is desirable therefore that it should
start functioning again.
</p>
<p> [Debove] The unstable situation does not encourage
foreigners to give loans or invest. Are you able to continue
your program without the help of international financial bodies?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] The reforms implemented so far have been achieved
almost completely without foreign aid. Last fall, the currency
reserves were $10 billion and the international bodies gave us
between $300 million and $400 million. For the past seven
months, the program has been at a standstill. The cost of
overcoming the crisis will therefore automatically be higher
than expected. Production has dropped by 20 percent, currency
reserves have fallen. Consequently, we need foreign aid. As for
U.S. aid, President Bush told me on the telephone on Monday
evening that he supported the economic reforms and the
democratization of society. He also expressed the importance he
attaches to Yugoslav territorial integrity.
</p>
<p> [Debove] How long can you withstand this crisis, and do you
think that nationalism will die down, that the nationalist
leaders will lose their influence?
</p>
<p> [Markovic] Economic and social problems are on the increase.
All the political forces will therefore very soon be ob